Reviewed by Shihaam IsaacsSouth Africa sports betting writer
Published 11 September 2026
South Africa beat New Zealand by 29 points to 24 at FNB Stadium in Soweto to take an unassailable lead in the four Test series, and Rassie Erasmus has made two changes for the final match in Baltimore on Saturday.
The third Test was played on Saturday 5 September. Kurt-Lee Arendse, Jesse Kriel and Malcolm Marx scored South African tries and the Springboks were awarded a penalty try. Ardie Savea crossed twice for New Zealand, with Will Jordan and Samisoni Taukei’aho adding the others.
That result put the Springboks two Tests to one ahead with one to play. New Zealand had won the opener by 33 points to 16 at Ellis Park, and South Africa answered by 33 to 26 in Cape Town a week later.
Two changes for the finale
Damian Willemse comes back at fullback in place of Cheslin Kolbe, who is out injured. Morne van den Berg starts at scrumhalf and Cobus Reinach drops to the bench. Siya Kolisi captains the side again, with Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx and Wilco Louw in the front row and Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu at flyhalf.
The fourth and final Test is at the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore on Saturday 12 September. The series is already won, so what is left is whether South Africa finish it three Tests to one or let New Zealand square it at two each.
What a decided series does to the prices
It thins them. A live decider draws the deepest rugby card South African books offer, and a dead rubber does not. Expect the match result and handicap markets to stay, and expect the novelty lists to be shorter than they were for Soweto.
The handicap is the market to watch rather than the winner. A side that has already claimed the trophy, playing at neutral altitude in a stadium built for another sport, is priced on motivation as much as on form, and that is exactly where lines move between announcement and kick off.
AXN Sports is not carrying a New Zealand starting fifteen here, because the All Blacks team for Baltimore was not confirmed by two sources at the time of writing.
Where to bet: Hollywoodbets and Betway, both licensed through provincial gambling boards, price the Test in rand on match result, handicap, total points, first try scorer and winning margin bands, with deposits by Ozow instant EFT, Capitec Pay and OTT Voucher. A late kick off in the United States means the line can drift after the South African evening, so compare two operators rather than taking the first number you see. Our guide to the best betting sites in South Africa covers licensing and payout times, and there is more in South Africa rugby news from AXN Sports. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
